LONDON - "The (Israeli occupation) entity is so tiny and needs fattening up." This was a statement made by Trump during the late days of his election campaign. Netanyahu announced Plan A at the UN, calling it the “New Middle East”. 

Netanyahu believed it was within reach after successfully targeting resistance leaders. Trump was prepared to endorse Netanyahu’s territorial expansion under this plan, however, Plan A failed at the front-line villages in southern Lebanon.  

Trump then moved to Plan B for the Middle East, ordering an end to the war in southern Lebanon and Gaza. Trump dislikes prolonged conflicts and realized the entity was incapable of achieving victory despite its stubbornness. Instead of “fattening up” the entity through Plan A, Trump shifted to a strategy of emptying Palestinians from the entity to manage the Jewish demographic so it is always a majority. He contacted the King of Jordan and the President of Egypt for this purpose. 

Trump believes he can dictate his orders to these countries and execute the “evacuation project”. However, the probability of relocating them to Jordan can lead to real instability, even overthrow, therefore all America can do is encourage voluntary immigration. It is for this reason they have also sought to create unbearable conditions in Gaza and the West Bank to aid in this objective. However, the Palestinians have proven they are steadfast in their land and will not leave no matter the hardships.

Trump's new Middle East strategy aims to rescue Israel from its current predicament. It includes Saudi Arabia’s official recognition of Israel and the establishment of diplomatic relations. However, this would just be the case of relations going from being under the table to over the table. The Abraham Accords did not stop the Oct. 7th attack and proved that normalization does not change the equation. It has become clear no scheme or collaborators will make Palestine disappear.

In his imagination, Trump seeks to restore American unipolarity by control over the economy, SWIFT, and hegemony of the dollar in addition to sanctions. Trump's plan envisions large-scale investments in the Middle East. This includes exploiting “Mediterranean oil and beaches” and turning Gaza into a booming economic hub. Gaza would be like a “new Hong Kong in the Middle East”, with American companies at its core. 

Furthermore, Trump threatened BRICS nations against launching a new currency for trade, warning them of 100% tariffs. Many BRICS-affiliated nations, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are from West Asia. He aims to separate Saudi Arabia as a financial power and Egypt as a consumer market from BRICS' monetary ambitions. Trump also plans to block Chinese investments and the Belt and Road Initiative, by ensuring a strong Western presence in the region.  

There is a possibility the U.S. and its companies will enter Syria for reconstruction and investment. Trump considers Syria’s new rulers to be terrorists. Plan A for Syria could likely consist of pushing for a government made up of individuals not labeled as terrorists. This could include bringing them in via the Persian Gulf states rather than Turkey. Once this transition is complete and a civilian, Persian Gulf-friendly regime is established in Syria, a peace agreement with Israel can follow. This government in Syria would likely be a product of Syria undergoing a period of unrest, followed by reconciliation. The country will remain de facto divided until full stabilization is achieved. Trump will unlikely withdraw U.S. forces unless they are under threat.  

Plan B for Syria under Trump, if chaos and conflict persist, could consist of Syria partitioned into four zones: Turkey, the U.S. via Kurdish forces, an Israeli occupation entity, and a lawless, chaotic zone. The U.S. zone will be in the Euphrates region, including Raqqa, Hasakah, and Deir ez-Zor, with Kurdish control. Turkey’s zone will be fully controlled by Ankara, covering Aleppo and Hama. The Israeli occupation entity will influence areas it has entered, extending from Golan to Daraa. A coastal Alawite region could emerge, possibly under French or Turkish oversight.  

Regarding Iran, Trump will attempt dialogue under American terms. Negotiations will take a long time and ultimately fail. When there are two differing lines, with Iran wanting to expel American imperialism from the region and America wanting to bring about “regime change” in Iran, there is nothing for both parties to unite on, therefore no conclusion will be reached.

All of Trump's policies in the region are doomed to collapse. He might consider a full regional withdrawal, replacing military presence with maximum sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and pressure on all parties linked to Iran. This will only, however, strengthen the China-Russia-Iran alliance, significantly weakening U.S. dominance in the region. Trump’s policies will not succeed given the elements required to implement these policies are too large and uncontrollable. There also remains a regional axis that strongly rejects these plans in their entirety.